THE MARKET CONTINUES TO GROW AND MOST BRANDS ARE DOING WELL — BUT NOT ALL
At the halfway point of 2014, new auto sales in Canada are 2.8 per cent ahead of where they were at the same time last year, setting the stage for a second consecutive record year if the trend continues. Sales for every month in the first half have surpassed those of the corresponding month in 2013.
As has been the case for a few years, the gains are not all equally distributed. While most brands are doing well — some very well — that’s not the case for all and past performance doesn’t necessarily predict how 2014 is playing out. Here’s how we see each brand’s mid-year report card:
Acura B+
After making some big gains last year, Acura seems to have slipped back a bit, with mid-year sales down 2.2 per cent from 2013. As a result, about half the share gain realized at that time has disappeared, in spite of an all-new MDX that has been well-received by critics. It was voted Best New CUV/SUV over $60,000 by the Automobile Journalists Association of Canada (AJAC). A delay in the launch date for the all-new TLX hasn’t helped but its arrival in August should boost prospects for the second half of the year.
Audi
Audi A
Audi continues to advance at a steady pace with sales up another 8.8 per cent from last year, although its market share remains about the same. An all-new A3 that was selected World Car of the Year, along with strong sales for the Q5 SUV have been the big sales drivers, aided by a steady stream of tweaks to its broad range of other models. There’s still no sign of any letup in that forward momentum.
BMW A-
As was the case last year, BMW’s sales and market share remained flat through the first half of 2014 — and it’s lost further ground to arch-rival Mercedes-Benz, which claimed the luxury-brand sales title for 2013. The all-new i3 electric vehicle has gained plenty of positive press for the brand but it won’t translate into much in terms of actual sales numbers. Plus, the competition is getting tougher in the entry-luxury market that was once the 3 Series’ almost exclusive domain. Expect BMW to hold its own but perhaps not much more for a while.
Chrysler A+
As it was throughout last year, Chrysler is one the big success stories of the first half, holding the overall sales crown at mid-year based on a huge margin built up in the first quarter. It now boasts an imposing record of 55 consecutive months of sales growth and it has gained another 0.3 per cent in share from a year ago. Jeep and Ram truck sales continue strong, minivan sales have rebounded, and the all-new Chrysler 200 is certain to provide a boost on the passenger car side, as are tweaks to the Dodge Charger and Challenger. The future continues to look bright.
Ford A
Repeating a pattern of the past couple years, Ford’s sales fell behind Chrysler’s in the first quarter of 2014, but reclaimed their leading position in the second. They’re still behind Chrysler year-to-date, however, and 2.4 per cent behind their own pace from a year ago. Fiesta, Escape and Explorer are making gains but the F-Series, while it remains clearly Canada’s best-selling vehicle overall, is losing some ground and its all-new, aluminum-bodied replacement won’t arrive until late in the year. The all-new 2015 Mustang may help some in the fourth quarter but in the meantime, Ford is in something of a holding pattern — albeit a very healthy one.
General Motors 2014 Chevy Silverado
General Motors B-
General Motors is perhaps in its most precarious position since its rebirth, primarily because of the chaos resulting from its ever-expanding recall issues. Sales at mid-year are down just 2.3 per cent from last year but a big part of that decline came in June (-15.0 per cent for the month), which raises questions as to whether that trend will continue. Also, its all-new 2014 full-size pickups haven’t been the huge success some expected, barely matching last year’s numbers. Such is the case throughout the lineup with few significant sales gains beyond the Chevrolet Cruze and offsetting losses to match. New mid-size trucks are the only significant products in the pipeline so to say the future looks uncertain is an understatement.
Honda A+
Honda’s got its mojo back! Sales are up 8.7 per cent at mid-year, which translates to an additional 0.4 per cent chunk of market share — the biggest gain for any brand this year. The new Fit has been a major contributor to that sales surge, but sales of the Civic — still Canada’s best-selling car — and the Odyssey minivan are up as well, while the Accord is holding its own. There’s nothing else new on the immediate horizon but there’s nothing to suggest any change in the status quo either.
Hyundai B+
Much of Honda’s gain has been Hyundai’s loss. Sales have fallen slightly (-2.1 per cent) from last year’s first half but that equates to a 0.3 per cent slice of market share. Both Santa Fe models are doing well, as is the Accent, but the Elantra and Sonata have both taken a hit. There’s a new Sonata on its way that could provide a boost in the fourth quarter, however, and a new Genesis will add a halo effect if not huge numbers. Based on that scenario, it’s very possible things could get better by year-end.
Infiniti A+
Count Infiniti among the year’s success stories, with sales up a solid 17.2 per cent, adding an additional tenth of market share. The QX50 and QX60 SUVs contributed a bit to that improvement but by far the biggest contributor was the new-for 2014 Q50 sedan, which garnered three AJAC awards, including two for its innovative technologies. There’s nothing else new on the immediate horizon but the current portfolio should keep things moving through the rest of the year.
Jaguar F-Type
Jaguar A+
While its overall numbers remain small, Jaguar continues to make big percentage gains — up 26.5 per cent at the half — primarily from the addition of its F-Type sports cars, although the XJ sedan and aging XK coupe/convertible both improved as well. A coupe version of the F-Type is in the pipeline and a new mid-size BMW 3-fighter is under development so there’s reason to believe the good times will continue to roll.
Kia B+
Like its Hyundai sister brand, Kia saw its fortunes decline a bit in 2013 but they’ve held almost steady so far this year, down just 0.9 per cent at the half. New Rondo and Soul models have been the bright-spot in the lineup, offsetting declines in Optima and Rio sales, while most other models held steady. Refreshed Forte5 and Koup models may add some spice to the rest of the year.
Land Rover A+
Land Rover sales just keep on climbing, up another 20.3 per cent over last year’s solid gain. The total numbers are small so they don’t equate to any significant share gain but they are hugely important for Land Rover dealers. Importantly, sales are up for every model but the biggest boost came from the new-for-2014 Range Rover Sport, which almost doubled its previous tally. The future looks good.
Lexus A+
Lexus is another of the year’s quiet successes, with sales up by 16.6 per cent and an extra tenth of share. The bulk of that boost came from the introduction of the next-generation IS sedan but the GX and RX utilities also made gains. There’s no reason to expect any downturn in this brand’s fortunes.
Mazda 3 Sedan
Mazda B+
Mazda is arguably among the most critically acclaimed brands of the year, with both the Mazda3 and Mazda6 winning multiple awards — the latter including AJAC’s Canadian Car of the Year. But sales are up just 1.0 per cent from last year and the brand gave up 0.1 per cent in share. The Mazda3 made a healthy gain and both the CX-5 and Mazda5 advanced but Mazda6 sales actually declined. There’s a new MX-5 (Miata) on its way but not in time to boost the brand’s fortunes this year.
Mercedes-Benz A+
Mercedes-Benz regained its form in the second half of 2013 to maintain the lead in luxury brand sales and that momentum has continued through the first half of 2014 with an onslaught of new products. Sales are up by 9.0 per cent although market share remains about the same. The all-new, front-wheel-drive CLA has brought a surge of new buyers while the up-market sedans and the M-Class utilities have also performed well, as has the Sprinter. An all-new C-Class promises to keep the momentum going.
MINI C
In spite of a new generation of MINI models making their way to market, the brand’s sales continue to fall — down 22.3 per cent and a tenth-of-a-point of share at mid-year. There are more new model variants in the pipeline but it just may be that the MINI magic has lost it spell.
Mitsubishi Outlander
Mitsubishi B-
After a brief revival in 2013, Mitsubishi’s sales continue to drop. They’re down 5.0 per cent in the first half and the brand has given back the tenth of share it gained last year. The Mirage sub-compact gave sales a shot of adrenaline and the refreshed Outlander has held its own, but their gains weren’t enough to offset sales losses by other models. With nothing new on the immediate horizon, the prognosis is not good.
Nissan A+
In a complete reversal of last year’s form, Nissan is the biggest gainer among mainstream brands so far in 2014. It has re-gained 0.3 per cent of market share — not enough to offset the half-point it lost last year but a positive step in that direction. Small cars have led the way in that resurgence, with the redesigned Rogue and Versa and the reintroduction of the sub-compact Micra model accounting for much of the sales increase, along with the redesigned Pathfinder SUV. There’s nothing else new coming this year but the momentum is strong and now well established.
Porsche Panamera
Porsche A+
Porsche’s sales keep on growing at record rates, increasing by 22.5 per cent through the first half. The refreshed Cayman and the Panamera have yielded the greatest improvements among passenger cars but the bulk of the increase comes from the Cayenne and the all-new Macan utility vehicles. With more 911 variants on the way, the future continues to look bright.
Smart B-
While they have stabilized a bit since last year’s freefall, Smart sales continue to decline – they’re down another 6.3 per cent in the first half. Availability of a new EV version isn’t likely to turn things around and new competition in the subcompact class at considerably lower prices isn’t helping this niche player’s cause.
Subaru A+
Subaru has carried its 2013 success through the first half of 2014 with sales up another 18.6 per cent and 0.2 per cent of share gained. While sales have increased almost all across the lineup, the new-for-2014 Forester CUV was by far the greatest gainer. With all-new mid-size Legacy and Outback models now coming on-stream, look for Subaru to continue turning up aces.
Toyota A-
Toyota has made minor sales gains (+1.4 per cent) through the first half but gave up 0.3 per cent of share in a market that’s advancing at a greater rate. The redesigned RAV4 is selling strongly, the new Highlander is doing well and Tundra and Yaris are bright spots, but the new Corolla is in tough against its compact-car competition and has done little more than offset Matrix losses. A redesigned Camry should give the brand a boost in the fourth quarter, however, so there’s a good chance of improved fortunes by year-end.
Volkswagen A
Volkswagen continue to do well if not spectacularly. Sales are up 6.0 per cent from last year, enough to gain 0.1 per cent of share — in spite of faltering Golf sales while the new model finally makes its way to market in North America. The primary source of new sales has been the compact Tiguan CUV but the Jetta and Passat have also made gains. With the new Golf finally arriving in the second half, look for a further increase in VW’s position by year-end.
Volvo V60
Volvo C-
While Volvo has had some positive months and a revised V60 model provides some opportunity, sales have fallen by a further 16.2 per cent in 2014. There’s an all-new XC90 coming that could effectively define the future of the brand but it won’t arrive in time to be of any help this year. So there’s little reason to expect much change for the rest of 2014.
