The usual New Year’s greeting may have a bit of a hollow ring this year. For we know that, at best, 2009 brings with it some real challenges and a likelihood that times are going to get worse before they get better.

But if we take the glass-half-full rather than glass-half-empty perspective, there is much to be happy about and to look forward to.

Take 2008 for example. It had its ups and downs for sure, but for most brands and their dealers it was more up than down. And it could have been much worse. In most other parts of the world, especially in the United States, it was much worse. While we just barely slipped into a double-digit sales decline in November, sales there have been off by a quarter to a third for several months, and their annual sales are the lowest in decades.

As we go to press, year-end numbers are not in yet for Canada (check the website, www.canadianautodealer.ca for up-to-date results), but unless December was a complete bust, 2008 will likely come in as the second- or third-best sales year ever. I know, that’s little solace to those dealers that went bankrupt, and there were more in 2008 than in 2007, but as I said earlier, it could have been much worse.

2009 prospects?
As for 2009, we’re all facing it with some trepidation. It is almost certain that our industry will look different when the year ends than it did when it began – perhaps dramatically different.

At this writing, it appears likely, although not certain, that the once-Big Three will receive some form of financial support from the U.S. government, and probably the Canadian and Ontario governments as well, that will keep them afloat to pursue their restructuring agendas, for the time being, at least. But there will be big strings attached to that support. Strings that some are already labeling as quasi-nationalization. The corporate structures that survive will no longer be their own masters.

For sure there will be fewer models offered, entire brands will disappear and there is a good chance that some companies will either be broken up or consolidated. Those actions will inevitably affect the dealer structure. So will the contracting economy, although perhaps to a lesser degree in the long run.

Whatever the outcome, change will be the order of the day. But this industry constantly adapts to change; it embraces change; it thrives on change! And it always has. So, to quote Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, speaking at the recent opening of Toyota’s new assembly plant in Woodstock, ON, believe this: "We’re going to be OK!"

Happy New Year!

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