There is some good news and some not-so-good news in December’s new-vehicle sales results for Canada. The good news: sales were up substantially from December 2008. The not-so-good: full-year sales were the lowest in more than a decade.

Looking at just December, total sales increased by 17.8 percent from the same month last year, which is broadly being seen as a positive sign. And it is. It clearly means the market is stronger now than it was then.

But it’s a low base for comparison, as December 2008 represented the absolute nadir in monthly sales through the duration of this recession. So it’s not as good as those comparative numbers suggest.

A more valid comparison might be made with average sales for the month over the past five years and in that respect December’s sales come up short by 2.9 percent. Not that bad, but not reason for rejoicing either.

SAAR

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) has now become a more meaningful figure for analuzing the state of the market than year-over-year data, given the abnormally low comparative figures through most of the last year. Expressed in those terms, December closed in the range of 1.47 million (per DesRosiers Automotive Consultants) to 1.49 million (per Scotia Economics) sales. That figure is actually down from the 1.52-to-155-million rate of the July-October period.

Nevertheless, it does seem to represent a stabilizing of the market right around the 1.5-million level, which is significantly improved from the situation a year ago.

Winners and losers

Even considering last year’s low base, some automakers’ results were spectacularly good in December – well ahead of the industry average. Among them:

• Toyota – up 86.2 %
• Kia – up 61.1 %
• Hyundai – up 37.4 %
• Subaru – up 27.2
• Ford – up 25.4 %
• Honda – up 20.9 %

Among the losers, General Motors was the only mainstream player to lag last December’s sales, down by 9.3 percent. Although still below the industry norm, Chrysler’s sales were up by 12.9 percent.

2009 full-year results

To no-one’s surprise, given how the year started, 2009’s full-year sales of 1,460,581 vehicles were the lowest since 1998 and represented the greatest single-year decline since 1990, according to Dennis DesRosiers of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants. That said, they were down just 10.7 percent from last year’s figures, which were the second-best ever –  far from the disaster that appeared to be looming at the start of the year.

For some manufacturers and dealers, in fact, it proved to be a very good year, with sales at record levels. (See separate article.)

2010 forecasts

The consensus of industry analysts seems to be that 2010 will carry on right where 2009 left off, with just a slight uptick during the year. DesRosiers is forecasting full-year sales of 1.50 million, while Scotiabank’s Carlos Gomes expects them to reach 1.53 million.

The bottom line: it will be a better year – but not by a lot.

Detailed sales figures for December and all of 2009 are below.

Light Duty Vehicle Sales in Canada - December and Full-Year 2009

Manufacturer	Dec 09 Sales	Dec 09/08 % Change	2009 Full Year	Full Year 09/08 % Change
Acura	1,533	-4.0	17,088	-11.8
Audi	701	-5.1	11,310	22.0
BMW	1,848	5.9	24,724	6.4
Chrysler	13,739	12.9	162,395	-26.7
Ford	17,902	25.4	224,859	6.8
General Motors	18,825	-9.3	251,938	-29.1
Honda	10,830	20.9	122,918	-19.1
Hyundai	5,154	37.4	103,233	28.0
Infiniti	489	1.0	7,081	-13.2
Jaguar	484	50.0	804	-13.5
Kia	2,645	61.1	46,118	22.9
Land Rover	243	62.0	2,006	-12.5
Lexus	1,235	36.3	15,802	5.3
Mazda	4,261	-5.5	73,672	-13.3
Mercedes-Benz	1,819	14.5	24,276	19.2
MINI	297	-1.0	4,251	-13.3
Mitsubishi	1,609	8.0	19,786	6.2
Nissan	4,652	15.1	71,936	-4.5
Porsche	114	20.0	1,689	0.4
Saab	53	-45.9	777	-50.4
smart	226	50.7	2,667	-28.9
Subaru	1,945	27.2	23,034	15.8
Suzuki	707	0.4	12,303	-8.5
Toyota	16,472	86.2	189,313	-9.5
Volkswagen	3,205	-10.9	40,059	0.1
Volvo	625	133.2	6542	0.5
Total Light Vehicle	111,186	17.8	1,460,581	-10.7
Total Passenger Car	50,943	13.9	747,497	-16.4
Total Light Truck	60,243	21.3	713,084	-3.8

Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. (DAC), Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada (AIAMC), Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association (CVMA)

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