There was good news and bad in Canada’s new-vehicle sales results for January. While overall sales were up 6.2 percent from the very low base of January 2009 (which also had two fewer selling days), they were down 6.5 percent from the January average for the past five years.

That equates to a seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of just 1.45 million units, according to Scotiabank chief economist, Carlos Gomes – well below the near 1.6-million peaks reached in the July-October period last year and the 1.5 to 1.53 million range of forecasts for 2010. It’s even behind 2009’s final figure of 1.46 million, making for a shaky start to the new year and the new decade.

It has also reversed the trend that saw Canada outperforming the U.S. market for the past year plus. Sales south of the border in January were up a similar amount, about six percent,  over the same month in 2009, but their SAAR was up as well, to 10.7 million from 10.4 million for the past year, while ours was down.

Much of the weakness in the Canadian market is attributable to double-digit declines by Honda (-12.1%) and Toyota (-14.8%) – the latter beset by the fallout from two much-publicized recalls and a sales freeze on several of its most-popular models.

 Chrysler (+6.1%), Ford (+5.9%) and General Motors (+5.1%) improved close to the market average, giving the ‘Detroit Three’ 46.8 percent of the market – their best combined share in a year and a five-percent surge in the past two months.

The real high fliers among mainstream brands, however, were Subaru (+45.8%), Kia (+32.8%), Hyundai (+32.1%) and Volkswagen (+23.2%). Among luxury brands, (Audi +127.8%), Lexus (+62.1%), Volvo (+38.5%) and Mercedes-Benz (+36.2%) led the way, with Acura (-34.8%) and Jaguar (-12.5%) falling behind. With Saab currently in limbo, there were no sales for the brand during the month

While it was a very good month for some, in terms of overall numbers it was disappointing, says industry analyst Dennis Desrosiers of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants. “If this (SAAR trend) were to hold  it would be very bad news for the automotive sector in Canada,” he says. “We expected better numbers. A year ago the January sales were down by about 25 percent and the lowest sales in a decade so most believed that this January would be back to more normal sales levels for this time of year (in the 90K to 110K level ). But at least sales were up slightly and January is the lowest absolute sales month each year so you can't read too much into this early market performance. March to June are the make or break months.”

See detailed sales results below.

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